Location: Peak Oil's effect on Solar Power

Peak Oil, and Why it Affects solar panel technology R&D

Again in 1990s, the second of 3 Geo Political reasons for expensive Oil was the confirmation of the PEAK OIL theory...

The first time Peak Oil was uttered by a modeler, it scared Oil and Gas officials. It continues to terrify the modern world. For if the theory of Peak Oil is accurate, there is only a finite amount of power to be userped from the earth in the form of Oil and Gas.

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines-sometimes rapidly-until the field is depleted. This concept is derived from the Hubbert curve, and has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation's domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is often confused with oil depletion; peak oil is the point of maximum production while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply.

World oil production growth trends were flat from 2005 to 2009. Many reports showed massive investment in drilling, refining, transportation and supply to maintain efficient distribution at very low prices. However, known and available reserves only increased moderately, whereas known and producing reserves were shown to be depleting rapidly. According to a January 2007 International Energy Agency report, global supply (which includes biofuels, non-crude sources of petroleum, and use of strategic oil reserves, in addition to crude production) averaged 85.24 million barrels per day (13.55210^6 m3/d) in 2006, up 0.76 million barrels per day (12110^3 m3/d) (0.9%), from 2005.[82] Average yearly gains in global supply from 1987 to 2005 were 1.2 million barrels per day (19010^3 m3/d) (1.7%).[82] In 2008, the IEA drastically increased its prediction of production decline from 3.7% a year to 6.7% a year, based largely on better accounting methods, including actual research of individual oil field production through out the world.

Annual World Oil Production

1987 - 2005 = Annual increase of 1.2 million barrels of production.
2006 = Annual increase of .75 million barrels of production.
2007 = Annual increase of .75 million barrels of production.
2008 = Annual increase of .0 million barrels of production.
2009 = Annual increase of .0 million barrels of production.
2010 = Annual decrease of more than 3% in the millions barrels of production total, annually.

This power can be used in any form we want, and this brings up questions.

1) Shouldn't we use the power we have smartly?
2) Shouldn't the price of power go up as the supply goes down?
3) Shouldn't the value of oil go up beyond?

The lesson from the "thinkers of the day":
If we don't use the power we have to make things that make power cleanly from the earth, we have no power in the end.

If you use your allotment of oil to build your solar panels, you trade a little power now, to run your systems for the next 20 years. Your solar panels are the ticket to avoid the rising oil, and subsequent energy prices that a reduction in the availability of oil will bring.

Get your solar panels produced now, with cheap energy.
When the price of production inevitably goes, up, you already have yours.
Independence allows you not to worry about peak oil.

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